After more than three decades without an explosive nuclear test, former US President Donald Trump has called for the United States to restart them “immediately” — a move that could mark a dramatic shift in global nuclear policy.
A Break from Decades of Restraint
Trump made the announcement on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday, citing the nuclear ambitions of Russia and China. “Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” he wrote, referring to the US Department of Defense by its historical name.
If carried out, the directive would end a 33-year moratorium on explosive nuclear testing in the United States. The last such test took place in 1992.
A few days before his post, Trump criticized Russia for conducting a test of a nuclear-powered missile — one of several new weapons Moscow claims can evade Western defenses. Similar plans floated during Trump’s first term were eventually shelved.
What Does “Testing” Really Mean?
Experts are cautious about interpreting Trump’s statement too literally. “I expect there will be flight tests of American intercontinental ballistic missiles, but I would be very surprised if the US were to resume actual nuclear explosive testing,” said Dr. Alexander Bollfrass of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Vitaly Fedchenko, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), agrees. He noted that Trump’s reference to the Department of Defense suggests missile tests, not full-scale detonations. “The Department of Energy oversees the facilities capable of nuclear explosive testing,” Fedchenko explained. “If the order went to Defense, it’s probably about missile systems rather than nuclear warheads.”
Could Explosions Happen Again?
If a nuclear explosion were to occur, analysts believe it would almost certainly take place in Nevada, the traditional testing ground for US nuclear weapons. But the logistics would be complex, costly, and slow.
“It would take at least 18 months to prepare for such a test, even under ideal conditions,” Fedchenko said. “You’d need to drill underground shafts and ensure containment to prevent radioactive leaks. Any mistake could release radiation into the air and even cause seismic effects near Las Vegas.”
Russia, China, and the Prospect of a New Arms Race
Russia’s latest missile tests — including one described by its military as a 14,000-kilometre flight of a nuclear-powered missile — appear to have spurred Trump’s renewed interest in testing.
Still, Dr. Bollfrass doubts that Washington seeks to mirror Moscow’s tactics. “The US already has a clear modernization plan for its nuclear arsenal,” he said. “The so-called exotic systems developed by Russia are mostly responses to US missile defense. The US doesn’t face the same constraints.”
Nonetheless, Trump’s rhetoric could fuel tensions among other nuclear powers. According to SIPRI, all nine nuclear-armed states — the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — are currently upgrading or expanding their arsenals.
China’s stockpile, in particular, has grown rapidly, doubling from 300 warheads in 2020 to roughly 600 in 2025, with projections suggesting it could exceed 1,000 by 2030.
“Even without new detonations, the perception of renewed testing could accelerate a global arms race,” Bollfrass warned. “The US now faces two major nuclear competitors — Russia and China — which fundamentally changes the strategic landscape.”
A Look Back: From Open-Air Tests to Underground Blasts
The era of atmospheric nuclear tests largely ended with the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty, signed by 123 nations including the US and the Soviet Union. Underground testing continued for decades, until the last US explosion in 1992. North Korea remains the only country to have conducted an explosive test this century — its most recent in 2017.
While underground detonations are less harmful than atmospheric ones, experts caution that any breach or miscalculation could release radioactive material into surrounding areas. “Even today, the scars of past tests are visible,” said Fedchenko. “Resuming them would not just be a technical decision — it would be a global political statement.”
