US simulations predict a Chinese defeat and exorbitant losses on both sides.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a research center in Washington, has just released a long report on Taiwan, the Chinese island refractory to communism on which Xi Jinping wants to get his hands on sooner or later. He dissects a vast wargaming exercise (simulation game) relating to attempts at an amphibious invasion of the island by the Beijing regime.
Twenty-four variations were played. Common point ? High human and material cost. Thus, in one of the scenarios, an attempt to transport an American brigade by air fails and results in the death of 2,000 men killed during the destruction in flight of the transport planes. In another, two Navy aircraft carriers go to the bottom! Taiwan’s navy and air force are eradicated within hours. Still, in most variations, Taiwan and its American and Japanese allies prevail.
The analysis shows that four conditions are necessary to hold China in check. First, the Taiwanese forces must resist on the ground and contain the Chinese on the beaches. In the process, the USA must massively strike the Chinese invasion fleet with long-range weapons (missiles and bombers). To do this, the US must be able to use its bases in Japan, South Korea and Australia.
Finally, the Ukrainian model is not suitable: it is before wartime that the Americans and their allies must provide equipment to Taiwan. During the combat phase, the delivery of equipment will not be possible due to the Chinese blockade. And US and allied forces will soon be directly engaged in the conflict.
