The Netherlands commenced voting on Wednesday in a closely contested national election, which is viewed as a significant indicator of the far right’s influence across Europe.
Current polls indicate that the outspoken populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party (PVV) hold a slight advantage over centrist competitors, with the electoral landscape divided among four parties.
This election could determine whether Dutch voters will reinforce Wilders’ anti-immigration stance or revert to a more centrist political approach following two years of unstable conservative governance. His previous coalition disbanded in June after he withdrew support due to disagreements over immigration policies.
Wilders, who refers to himself as the “Dutch Trump,” has campaigned on a platform that includes denying all asylum applications—a proposal that would violate EU treaties—and reallocating development aid to domestic initiatives. “People are fed up with mass immigration and the change of culture,” he stated in an interview with the AFP news agency prior to the election.
Despite his campaign efforts, Wilders’ prospects of becoming prime minister appear limited. All major parties, including the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the conservative Christian Democrats, have ruled out forming a government with him.
“It is impossible to tell right now who might win the elections because there are four parties tied for first place,” remarked Sarah de Lange, a political scientist at Leiden University, in a conversation with AFP.
Polling stations opened early to accommodate commuters, with the first reliable exit poll anticipated once voting concludes at 9 p.m. local time. Surveys indicate that nearly half of Dutch voters remain undecided, highlighting significant political volatility.
The PVV is facing renewed competition from the Christian Democrats, now led by Henri Bontenbal, who advocates for stability and “traditional values,” as well as from the centrist D66, under the leadership of Rob Jetten, who has gained traction with a focus on housing and education issues.
The fragmented political system in the Netherlands ensures that no single party is likely to achieve the 76-seat threshold necessary for a majority government, making protracted coalition negotiations almost unavoidable—and leaving the country’s political trajectory uncertain.
Wilders instigated the election by withdrawing the PVV from a fragile four-party coalition following a dispute over immigration quotas and family reunification policies, a decision that fractured the coalition and necessitated an early election.
His performance in the European Union’s fifth-largest economy will be closely monitored as a measure of the extent to which far-right parties are reshaping the political landscape in Europe, with nationalist movements also gaining prominence in France, Germany, and Britain.
