The Dutch parliamentary election is approaching a dramatic conclusion, with the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders and the pro-European D66 party under Rob Jetten both projected to secure 26 seats each, according to provisional estimates released Thursday, following the counting of over 90% of the votes.
The PVV experienced a significant decline from its record performance in 2023, while the pro-European D66 nearly tripled its representation, emerging as the largest gainer based on early results.
Initial exit polls indicated that the centrist D66 party was slightly ahead of Wilders’ PVV, potentially paving the way for Jetten to become the youngest prime minister in Dutch history.
An IPSOS exit poll estimated D66 would win 27 seats, compared to 25 for Wilders’ party.
The latest forecast from the ANP news agency showed D66 leading by a narrow margin of a few thousand votes, with final results anticipated later on Thursday.
The PVV faced renewed competition from two centrist parties: the Christian Democrats, now led by Henri Bontenbal, who emphasized stability and “traditional values,” and D66, which has gained traction with a focus on housing and education under the leadership of 38-year-old Jetten.
The fragmented nature of the Netherlands’ political system makes it unlikely for any single party to achieve the 76-seat threshold necessary for a majority government, indicating that protracted coalition negotiations are almost certain, leaving the country’s political future uncertain.
Wilders appeared to acknowledge that his party would not secure the top position, stating, “The voter has spoken. We had hoped for a different outcome but we stuck to our guns,” in a post on X following the exit polls.
In contrast, the D66 election night celebration erupted in cheers and chants of “Yes, we can,” as attendees waved Dutch flags.
“Millions of Dutch people have turned the page today. They have said goodbye to the politics of negativity, of hate,” Jetten declared to his enthusiastic supporters.
This election served as a crucial test for Dutch voters, determining whether they would reaffirm Wilders’ anti-immigration stance or shift back toward the political center after two years of unstable conservative governance. His previous coalition collapsed in June due to disagreements over immigration policies.
Wilders, who has likened himself to the “Dutch Trump,” campaigned on a platform that included denying all asylum applications—a proposal that would violate EU treaties—and reallocating development aid to domestic priorities. “People are fed up with mass immigration and the change of culture,” he told the AFP news agency.
Prior to the election, Wilders’ prospects of becoming prime minister appeared limited, as all major parties, including the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the conservative Christian Democrats, have ruled out forming a government with him.
Surveys indicated that nearly half of Dutch voters remained undecided as the election approached, highlighting the prevailing political uncertainty.
Wilders instigated the election by withdrawing the PVV from a fragile four-party coalition following a dispute over immigration quotas and family reunification rules, a decision that fractured the coalition and necessitated an early election.
His performance in the European Union’s fifth-largest economy will be closely monitored as an indicator of the influence of far-right parties on European politics, with nationalist movements also gaining traction in France, Germany, and Britain.
