BEIJING – The Chinese government has announced a formal investigation into beef imports, the Ministry of Commerce stated on Friday. This development comes as the world’s largest importer and consumer of meat grapples with a significant market oversupply, which has driven domestic beef prices to their lowest levels in years.
Any potential measures to curb imports could impact major beef-exporting nations, including Brazil, Argentina, and Australia, which are China’s primary suppliers. According to customs data, China’s total beef imports reached $14.2 billion in 2023, a sharp increase from $8.2 billion in 2019. Brazil accounted for 42% of the total trade value, followed by Argentina at 15% and Australia at 12%.
Scope of Investigation
The inquiry, which covers fresh, chilled, frozen, and head of beef, will examine imports between January 1, 2019, and June 30, 2024. The Ministry of Commerce launched the probe following a petition by the China Animal Husbandry Association and other livestock organizations, which claimed that the surge in import volumes had “severely harmed” China’s domestic beef industry.
Between January and November 2024, China imported 2.6 million tons of the targeted beef products, a significant rise from 1.66 million tons in the calendar year 2019. Imports from Argentina alone increased by 10% in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 533,005 metric tons.
The China Animal Husbandry Association emphasized the negative impact of rising imports on local farmers. “Excessive beef imports have caused substantial damage to my country’s beef cattle industry,” the association stated in a report. “The industry strongly calls on the country to take control measures on imported beef to protect farmers’ livelihoods and the industry’s security.”
Economic Pressures and Declining Prices
The oversupply of beef is exacerbating an already challenging economic climate. Meat prices across China, including pork, poultry, and beef, have declined as consumers, affected by the slowing economy, reduce spending on premium products.
Wholesale beef prices have fallen 22% over the past two years, dropping from 77.18 yuan per kilogram in late 2021 to 59.82 yuan ($8.20) per kilogram in December 2023, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Additionally, the price of live cattle has hit its lowest level in a decade, further squeezing margins for Chinese farmers.
The investigation revealed that beef imports under scrutiny accounted for 30.9% of the domestic market share. Between 2019 and 2023, beef imports surged by nearly 65%. In the first half of 2024 alone, import volumes more than doubled compared to the same period in 2019.
Government Efforts and Broader Trade Context
The investigation, expected to conclude within eight months, may be extended under special circumstances. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the probe is not targeted at specific countries or regions and does not distinguish the origin of the beef products. Normal trade will remain unaffected during the investigation period.
In June, Chinese authorities urged farmers to limit and optimize the size of their cattle herds to stabilize domestic prices. However, the continued surge in beef imports, particularly from South American producers, has kept local prices under pressure.
In a related development, China is also considering trade restrictions on imports of dairy and pork from the European Union. Analysts suggest these potential measures are part of a tit-for-tat response to the EU’s anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into China-made electric vehicles.
This investigation underscores Beijing’s focus on protecting its domestic beef industry amid increasing global trade tensions and a weakening domestic economy.
(Exchange rate: $1 = 7.2992 Chinese yuan renminbi)
