ASML said in a note to its third-quarter figures that it expects demand from China, and therefore its total sales to China, to “decrease significantly in 2026 compared to our strong business there in 2024 and 2025,” the Brabant-based company wrote.
The United States under former President Joe Biden urged the Netherlands to impose export restrictions on ASML’s advanced machines, and President Donald Trump has said he has no intention of deviating from that line.
China accounted for 40 percent of ASML’s sales last year, making it the company’s largest market. ASML said it made no prediction about the size of the drop in sales to China next year, but added that total net sales in 2026 “will not fall below this year’s.”
The announcement followed a July warning from ASML that it doubted sales would grow next year. At that time the stock fell more than 10 percent, a loss the company said has since been more than compensated.
For 2025 ASML still expects growth of about 15 percent compared with a year earlier, the company said. In the third quarter sales were €7.51 billion, compared with €7.47 billion in the same quarter last year. Net profit was €1.96 billion, about 27 percent higher than in the third quarter of last year.
