There’s a 40% possibility that world temperatures will get to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in the following five years – and the odds are getting higher.
It is warned by scientists that temperature rises over 1.5C are going to lead to more heatwaves, water shortages, extreme rainstorms and drought.
A goal of maintaining temperature rises under that threshold to stop the worst effects of global warming was set by the 2015 Paris climate accord.
The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said last year that there was a 20% possibility of temperatures rising over 1.5C.
However, in the most recent forecast, the organization said the odds getting worse is due to the progress in technology revealing that the world has “actually warmed more than we thought already”.
A climate scientist at the UK Met Office, Leon Hermanson, said the warming was mainly stressed over lightly-monitored polar territories. “It’s a warning that we need to take strong action.”
Professor Petteri Taalas, WMO secretary-general added: “Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development. This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.”
“It is yet another wake-up call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.”
The Paris Accord target observes temperature shifts over a 30-year average, as opposed to that of a single year, however, in the report made by WMO it was said that each year between the present and 2015 is plausible to see average temperature rises of at least 1C.
Additionally, it forecasts a 90% possibility that at least one of those years is going to be the hottest on record, with temperatures higher than in 2016.
It’s also said that the globe can await a wetter African Sahel and Australia, and a drier North America, with additional cyclones in the Atlantic.
“There’s a little bit of up and down in the annual temperatures but these long term-trends are unrelenting.
“It seems inevitable that we’re going to cross these boundaries, and that’s because there are delays in the system, there is inertia in the system, and we haven’t really made a big cut to global emissions as yet.” said the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Gavin Schmidt.
In order to keep to the 1.5C limit, dramatic attempts are required to reduce carbon emissions by almost half by 2030 as well as to net zero 20 years later.
However, we are placed on track for 2-3C of warming by the finish of the century by the world’s current promises.